In this blog Brent Graham has a go at predicting the week 6 Super Rugby Pacific Week handicaps and he also tracks market moves, considers the weather and ultimately places a bet on each game.
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WEATHER LINKS FOR WEEK 6
Posted 19 March 07h31
Moana Pasifika v Chiefs, Friday 08h05, Navigation Homes Stadium, Pukekohe (Grass) - mild and clear
Highlanders v Reds, Saturday 05h35, Forsyth Barr Stadium (Turf) - under roof
Blues v Crusaders, Sarturday 08h05, Eden Park, Auckland (Grass, Hybrid) - possible rain
Waratahs v Brumbies, Saturday 10h35, Allainz Stadium, Sydney (Matrix "Ready to Play" Turf) - warm and clear, rain forecast after - monitor
Force v Drua, Sunday 08h05, HBF Park, Perth (Grass) - hot and clear
POINTS LINES FOR SRP WEEK 6
Posted 19 March 07h00
There has been very little handicap movement and below are the latest lines as well as points markets - weather links to follow, based on the spreads some hectic conditions expected in Auckland and Perth.
Update 07h30: I am not sure the lines I saw are correct on the Blues and Force games as there were no prices quoted and the weather looks decent
Moana Pasifika +15.5 v Chiefs, Points 66.5
Highlanders -3.5 v Reds, Points 56.5
Blues +0.5 v Crusaders, Points TBC
Waratahs +4.5 v Brumbies, Points 54.5
Force -3.5 v Drua, Points TBC
SRP WEEK 6 HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 17 March 08h36
The bookies are out with their lines and Betxhange handicaps in brackets next to mine
Moana Pasifika +10.5 (+14.5) v Chiefs
Highlanders -3.5 (-2.5) v Reds
Blues -2.5 (+0.5) v Crusaders
Waratahs -3.5 (+4.5) v Brumbies
Force -4.5 (-3.5) v Drua
Waratahs and Pasifika games the big differences but I think the bookies are closer to the mark than I am so won't get involved yet
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 5 WRAP
Posted March 16 13h18
It was a nice bounceback weekend for me in SRP with 4 of the 5 preview picks landing including Reds by 11-20 at 3/1 in the final match.
We also caught the early market move on the Highlanders who opened underdogs but started favourites although unfortunatly they ended up losing by 2 points.
Below the results wth winners handicaps at kick off
Highlanders 18 Hurricanes 20 (+1.5) - Highlanders butcher chances to win, great game to watch. Either team by 7 or less arrives at 14/10
Brumbies 38 Drua 20 (-12.5) - Brumbies over 36.5 arrives late
Crusaders 55 Force 33 (-27.5, however early -20 backers arrived with a missed conversion from the Force) Saders over 44.5 cruises in
Chiefs 32 Blues 31 (-11.5, Blues miss a conversion to win the game) Chiefs by 11-20 at 5/2 missed
Reds 35 Waratahs 15 (-9.5) - Reds by 11-20 at 3/1 hangs on
Here is the current log
Handicap Projections for Week 6
Note: Next week the Chiefs, Blues and Drua have a bye
Moana Pasifika +10.5 v Chiefs
Highlanders -3.5 v Reds
Blues -2.5 v Crusaders
Waratahs -3.5 v Brumbies
Force -4.5 v Drua
It looks to me like alot of competitive matches this week and will compare with the bookmakers on Monday
