Italy take on second placed Scotland in Round 4 of the Six Nations in Rome on Saturday and the home side came so close to rare victory in the previous round.
Italy v Scotland, Saturday 9th March, Rome, KO 16:15 (South African time)
Referee: Angus Gardner (RA)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (RFU), Adam Leal (RFU)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (SARU)
Weather Forecast: Rome
Italy
Although Italy were 26.5 point underdogs for their trip to Lille to take on France in Round 3 they drew game the game 13-13 and could have snared a rare victory had a penalty at the death not hit the post. They conceded the first 10 points of the match but fought back against 14 men in the second half and a converted Ange Capuozzo try levelled the scores on 71 minutes before the late heartbreak for Paolo Garbisi.
Italy went down 36-0 to Ireland in Dublin in Round 2, a margin of defeat just outside of the main handicap which had been set at 33.5 points. In Round 1 Italy were given around 14.5 points on the handicap for their home fixture against England in Rome. They threatened a surprise when leading 17-14 at half time but England hit back to edge it 27-24. Italy scored 3 tries to England's 2 and earned a losing bonus point.
Italy remain at the foot of the standings but they now have 3 log points, the same number as Wales who they will visit in the final round of matches.
In the outright betting markets with BoyleSports Italy are currently 0.37/1 to finish bottom of the standings
Fixtures & Results: R1 England (h) lost 27-24, R2 Ireland (a) lost 36-0, R3 France (a) drew 13-13, R4 Scotland (h), R5 Wales (a)
Scotland
Scotland moved in to second position on the log with a 30-21 home win over England in Round 3. They recovered from conceding the first 10 points of the match to lead 17-14 and Duhan Van der Merwe scored all 3 of their tries before being sent to the bin in the final stages but the Scots made it a fourth straight win over the English.
Scotland went down 20-16 to France in controversial circumstances at Murrayfield in Round 2. They led 13-10 after a first half they had by far the better of but France eventually got in front on the scoreboard with a 70th minute try. Scotland then had what they believed was the winning try chalked off by the TMO right at the death and they had to settle for a losing bonus point.
Scotland opened up with a 27-26 victory over Wales in Cardiff. They went into half time 20-0 up and the lead was extended to 27-0 early in the second half. Cue an amazing Welsh fightback and Scotland had to hang on at the death.
In the 6 Nations last year Scotland beat Italy 26-14 at Murrayfield and on their visit to Rome in 2022 the Scots won 33-22.
Scotland finished Round 3 in second spot with 9 log points, 6 shy of leaders Ireland, England have 8, France 6 and Wales and Italy both have 3. In the outright betting markets with BoyleSports Scotland can also be backed at around 1.75/1 to finish in the top 2.
Fixtures & Results: R1 Wales (a) won 27-26, R2 France (h) lost 20-16, R3 England (h) won 30-21, R4 Italy (a), R5 Ireland (a)
Team News
Italy: 15 Ange Capuozzo, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Ross Vintcent, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Spanish Mirco, 18 Giosuè Zilocchi, 19 Andrea Zambonin, 20 Lorenzo Cannone, 21 Stephen Varney, 22 Leonardo Marin, 23 Federico Mori
Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Cameron Redpath, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (captain), 9 George Horne, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge (captain), 6 Andy Christie, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turners, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Elliot Millar-Mills, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Jamie Ritchie, 21 Matt Fagerson, 22 Ali Price, 23 Kyle Row
Head to Head (6 Nations Only)
2023 6N Edinburgh Scotland 26–14 Italy (Tries 4-1 )
2022 6N Rome Italy 22–33 Scotland (tries 3-5 )
2021 6N Edinburgh Scotland 52-10 Italy (Tries 8-1)
2020 6N Rome Italy 0-17 Scotland (Tries 0-3)
2019 6N Edinburgh Scotland 33-20 Italy (Tries 5-3)
2018 6N Rome Italy 27-29 Scotland (Tries 3-4)
2017 6N Edinburgh Scotland 29-0 Italy (Tries 4-0)
2016 6N Rome Italy 20-36 Scotland (Tries 2-3)
The Betting
Italy +11.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Scotland -11.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Note, odds quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
This handicap has been stable at the +11.5 mark all week and Total Points is set at 48.5. Credit to the bookmakers on this one as they have handicapped the game well. I was initially leaning Italy, but after discussions on our Rugby Betting Show, THE HANDICAP, I would go for Scotland on the -11.5 if pushed.
The points line of 48.5 is on the high side for a Six Nations game, but I think we are going to get an entertaining match and will be backing the overs. This would have arrived the last time Italy hosted Scotland in the Six Nations in 2023 when 55 points was scored.
BET: 4 Units over 48.5 points at 9/10 at 9/10 at Betxchange
Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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